A Predictable Surprise

Fred ran a great non-campaign. Unfortunately, he did not run a great campaign. While I did not expect him to become the last surviving candidate for the Repub party, I am glad he ran. He is an idealistic man who, along with Paul and Hunter, forced conservative issues into the Republican debate. Hopefully, Mitt can convince us that he was listening.

Here's what I predict:

Mitt will benefit from Thompson's departure. Fred Heads are not McCain supporters. Fred Heads are not Giuliani folks. Most Fred Heads cannot abide Huck's fiscal, populous policies, but they do like that he is a Southerner. So he might garnish a few of their votes. But I think that Mitt, despite his "flip-flopper" label, tends to embrace the Fred Head platform more so than any other candidate, except maybe Ron Paul. I can see where Paul may pick up some of the Thompson faithful, but a practical approach will be to vote for a candidate who is at least electable. I am not saying they will love Mitt. Only that he is the most likely to reflect their values, and be in a position to do anything about it.

Now, I have not read the blogosphere to get a feel for this yet. I am only looking at this from a somewhat objective point of view. I think Fred's dropping was important, because I think the Republican party has, and still is, divided, not so much 4 ways, but 2 1/2 ways. There is Giuliani and McCain making a bid for about 40% of the Republican/Independent vote. Then there is Romney/Huck vying for another 40-50%. Then there are some smaller factions who are trying to choose between McCain/Huck or McCain/Romney or Giuliani/Huck. The larger Romney/Huck faction was also splitting its vote with Fred. With Fred gone, and Giuliani now entering the race, I think McCain will hurt and Romney will gain, possibly getting a slight edge over Huck.