A Predictable Surprise

Fred ran a great non-campaign. Unfortunately, he did not run a great campaign. While I did not expect him to become the last surviving candidate for the Repub party, I am glad he ran. He is an idealistic man who, along with Paul and Hunter, forced conservative issues into the Republican debate. Hopefully, Mitt can convince us that he was listening.

Here's what I predict:

Mitt will benefit from Thompson's departure. Fred Heads are not McCain supporters. Fred Heads are not Giuliani folks. Most Fred Heads cannot abide Huck's fiscal, populous policies, but they do like that he is a Southerner. So he might garnish a few of their votes. But I think that Mitt, despite his "flip-flopper" label, tends to embrace the Fred Head platform more so than any other candidate, except maybe Ron Paul. I can see where Paul may pick up some of the Thompson faithful, but a practical approach will be to vote for a candidate who is at least electable. I am not saying they will love Mitt. Only that he is the most likely to reflect their values, and be in a position to do anything about it.

Now, I have not read the blogosphere to get a feel for this yet. I am only looking at this from a somewhat objective point of view. I think Fred's dropping was important, because I think the Republican party has, and still is, divided, not so much 4 ways, but 2 1/2 ways. There is Giuliani and McCain making a bid for about 40% of the Republican/Independent vote. Then there is Romney/Huck vying for another 40-50%. Then there are some smaller factions who are trying to choose between McCain/Huck or McCain/Romney or Giuliani/Huck. The larger Romney/Huck faction was also splitting its vote with Fred. With Fred gone, and Giuliani now entering the race, I think McCain will hurt and Romney will gain, possibly getting a slight edge over Huck.

Run, Fred, Run

Well, Freddy joined the hunt. I know he's done well in the blogosphere, and he has been campaigning outside of the campaign, which people really love. (I think it results from a fear of jumping on a bandwagon, and losing credibility in conversations.) I'm not sure how that will translate in the real world. I can't say as I am an avid fan. I just don't see him as president. On one hand, I fear that his appearance and mannerisms will result in another Bob Dull campaign. On the other hand, where Dole was a liberal Repub, Thompson is certainly not.

What I do like is the perspective he brings to the mix of candidates. This is always good. I like that he admits that he does not have all the answers to our problems, but that no one else does, either. I think that he brings a level of practicality to the field. If the others are smart, and I think some of them are, they will analyze why he has such support, and find a way to internalize some of his platform into their own. If they can pull it off without being disingenuous (and I think it can be done at this early stage), they can nab some of his support, add it to what they already have, and emerge as a viable candidate.

I really don't think there is such a divergence between him and Romney, that Romney can't garnish Fred's supporters. As I've said before, Romney is more winnable in the North, while not necessarily loseable in the South. Fred will have a harder time in the North, especially in some states (MA?) where the Repub would need to grab votes.

Most of their stances are pretty similar. True, Romney's have changed recently, but they honestly do not think the changes were disingenuous. Romney believes what he is campaigning on. Other than the Mormon issue, which Mitt will need to address again, the two aren't all that far apart.

What I am a little nervous about with Fred is that he appears ideologically driven. It may be unfair to say that without some more research on my part, but I'm going to say it here, anyway. I think, as Repubs, we have a good mixture of ideas. I only hope we do not allow ideology to overshadow reality. Sometimes reality is a harder sell, but it pays off well in the long run.

Arkie, thru and thru?

This is cool. I have added a link to my side bar to a cool website where you can take a 34 Question survey and find out which candidates you match up with. Low and Behold... I got this guy>



That's right... Mike Huckabee, formerly an Arkansas Gubernator.

Looks like he found it a little ironic, too.

Not too far behind him was Fred Thompson. (Down, Bato, Down)

My man Sam B. was right there in the pack, as was Mitt.

As I said... Interesting...

Frighteningly, I agreed with 49% of Joey Biden?!

Algore wasn't even on the list. Whew!